334 Quail Run, Smithville, TX 78957
Here is a quick analysis of 334 Quail Run, Smithville, TX 78957: a single-family home of about 3,500 sq ft built in 1953, with an estimated value of $486,000 ($139 per sq ft). Below you will find the valuation, comparable sales, rental and ownership numbers, taxes, insurance and risks. Use View as to focus on a homebuyer or investor view.
Single-family home [P]Probability-based. Building type is estimated.
What does [P] mean? Address and location are real public data. Anything marked [P] is a probability-based estimate generated for a typical home like this one – not a record about this exact property. Hover or tap [P] to see how each value is estimated.
Sources: BCAD-B county appraisal record · TxGIO / National Address Database · OpenStreetMap buildings · FEMA flood map · USGS elevation · FHFA price index · Texas Dept. of Insurance. Items marked [P] are estimates and are not taken from these sources.
First look at the property
This is a single-family home in Smithville, Bastrop County, with an estimated value of $486,000 [P]Probability-based. Probability-based estimate for a typical home like this one. It is not taken from any register or record about this specific property. and about 3,500 sq ft of living area. Below is a short read of what speaks for and against it, based on the data on this page.
Strengths
- 5 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms suit families and many tenants.
- Modeled price of $139 per sq ft is below the nearby comparable median of $149.
- Appraised value and building facts come from the BCAD-B county record, not from a model.
Weaknesses
- Property tax of about $8,810 per year ($734 per month) is a large running cost.
- Modeled cash flow is negative with 25% down: –$634 per month.
- Building age of 73 years means roof, foundation, plumbing and electrical need a proper inspection.
- Hail / wind is rated high: Roof ~29 yrs old; Texas hail and storm exposure.
- Foundation is rated high: Age 73 yrs on expansive clay.
Working hypothesis: this looks like a better fit for an owner-occupier than for an investor focused on cash flow. That is a starting point, not a conclusion; the sections below show the numbers behind it.
The five questions
High Foundation
High HVAC age
See all risks and the due-diligence checklist
Property facts
- Address
- 334 Quail Run, Smithville, TX 78957
- Coordinates
- 30.00073, -97.13779
- Property type
- Single-family home [P]Probability-based. Building type is not in any register we use. It is inferred from the mapped building class where available, otherwise estimated from the mix of homes in the area.
- Living area
- 3,500 sq ft [P]Probability-based. Living area is not public for this address. It is calculated from the building footprint and number of floors, or estimated from typical home sizes.
- Bedrooms
- 5 [P]Probability-based. Derived from the assumed floor plan.
- Bathrooms
- 2 [P]Probability-based. Derived from the assumed floor plan.
- Floors
- 2 OSM
- Building footprint
- 1,991 sq ft OSM
- Lot size
- 9,150 sq ft [P]Probability-based. Lot boundaries are not used here. Typical lot size for this kind of property and area.
- Year built
- 1953 [P]Probability-based. Year built is not in the data sources used. Estimated from the typical age profile of homes in this city.
- Building data source
- OpenStreetMap
Parcel, status and occupancy
- County
- Bastrop County TxGIO all addresses in the county
- Address record
- TxGIO StratMap · source CAPCOG
- Parcel ID (APN)
46827BCAD-B- Listing status
- Off-market (no active listing found) [P]Probability-based. No MLS feed is connected, so listing status and price history are not available. Licensed listing data is needed for live status.
- Occupancy
- Owner-occupied [P]Probability-based. Occupancy is not known. Typical split for this property type and city.
- Parking
- 2-car garage [P]Probability-based. Probability-based estimate for a typical home like this one. It is not taken from any register or record about this specific property.
- Virtual tour
- Not available [P]Probability-based. No 3D tour or video is connected to this address.
- Parcel boundary
- Not available [P]Probability-based. Parcel outlines come from county GIS and are not a legal survey. The map shows the address point and nearby addresses.
- Last updated
- County record tax year 2021 · page updated Oct 13, 2026
- Canonical ID
TX-1a834c9484ab
County appraisal record real data
From the Bastrop County appraisal district (BCAD-B, tax year 2021). Appraised value is the county’s estimate for tax purposes, not a sale price or an appraisal for a loan.
- Appraised market value
- $51,316 BCAD-B
- Land value
- $5,000 BCAD-B
- Improvement value
- $46,316 BCAD-B
Photos
Photos from public sources (Wikimedia Commons, Wikidata, KartaView, Panoramax) taken at or near this address – of the building, the street, or the surrounding area. Many addresses have none.
Looking for photos near this address …
Floor plan Assumed
Floors 2 from OpenStreetMap
Probability-based illustration – not an actual floor plan. Listings has no access to this building’s real room layout. The drawing is generated by an algorithm from the building footprint (OpenStreetMap), number of floors, building type and typical US layouts. Shape, dimensions, rooms, walls, doors, windows and furniture may differ completely from reality. Do not use for buying, selling, permits or valuation.
Valuation
- Estimated value
- $486,000 [P]Probability-based. Modeled. Not an appraisal.
- Range
- $437,000 – $535,000
- Valuation date
- Oct 12, 2026
- Confidence
- Medium [P]Probability-based. Higher when building footprint, type and floors are mapped in OpenStreetMap. Here: footprint mapped, type estimated, floors mapped.
- Price per sq ft
- $139 [P]Probability-based. Probability-based estimate for a typical home like this one. It is not taken from any register or record about this specific property.
- Comparable-sales indication
- $367,000 [P]Probability-based. Median of size/age-adjusted modeled comparable sales below. Comparable sales here are modeled, not recorded deeds.
Methodology (TX-model v1.1 · 2026-10-12): when no county record is used, estimated living area × a city-level price per sq ft × age factor × a property-level seeded variation, cross-checked against size- and age-adjusted nearby comparable values. Sale prices, listings and assessments from county records are not connected, so every number on this page that is not marked “OSM” is a modeled estimate [P].
Estimated value [P]Probability-based. No sale price or appraisal is used. The estimate multiplies the estimated living area by a typical price per square foot for the city, adjusted for age. Treat it as a rough guess.
$486,000 [P]Probability-based. Probability-based estimate for a typical home like this one. It is not taken from any register or record about this specific property.
Range $418,000 – $554,000 · about $139 per sq ft
History is real market data: the shape follows the FHFA house price index for ZIP 78957 (all-transactions, annual), scaled to this home’s modeled value [P]Probability-based. The index level is not this home’s price; only the year-by-year movement is observed.
Estimated monthly costs
- Property tax
- $734/mo [P]Probability-based. Texas has no state income tax and relies heavily on property tax. Rate assumed from typical local rates (about 1.90% of value).
- Home insurance
- $344/mo [P]Probability-based. Typical Texas homeowners insurance (hail and wind exposure).
- Mortgage (20% down, 30-yr, 6.75%)
- $2,522/mo [P]Probability-based. Illustrative only: 20% down, 30-year fixed at 6.75%.
Price history and appreciation
- Listing price history
- Not available [P]Probability-based. Needs a licensed MLS or listing-data feed.
- 1-year change in value
- 0.6 % [P]Probability-based. From the modeled city value index. Not this property’s recorded history.
- 3-year change in value
- 2.5 % [P]Probability-based. From the modeled city value index. Not this property’s recorded history.
- 5-year change in value
- 33.9 % [P]Probability-based. From the modeled city value index. Not this property’s recorded history.
- Over/undervalued vs comps
- Enter an asking price in “The five questions”.
Comps [P]Probability-based. Sold, active and pending comparables are modeled from nearby addresses. They are not recorded sales or live listings, and are shown to explain how the estimate is reasoned.
| Address | Status | Price | $/sq ft | Size · bd/ba | Built | Distance | Date | Sale-to-list | Days on market | Adjusted price | Why included |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1638 Northeast State Highway 230 Loop | Pending [P] | $453,000 | $149 | 3,050 sq ft · 5/3 | 1960 | 0.31 mi | Sep 4, 2026 | – | 32 | $474,672size +$26,775 · age –$5,103 | same type · size within 13% · 0.31 mi away · built 1960 |
| 1638 Northeast State Highway 230 Loop | Sold [P] | $334,000 | $135 | 2,470 sq ft · 4/3 | 1946 | 0.31 mi | Jul 16, 2026 | 92.0 % | 27 | $400,388size +$61,285 · age +$5,103 | same type · size within 29% · 0.31 mi away · built 1946 |
| 1638 Northeast State Highway 230 Loop | Sold [P] | $398,000 | $141 | 2,820 sq ft · 4/3 | 1968 | 0.31 mi | Jul 6, 2026 | 92.6 % | 62 | $427,525size +$40,460 · age –$10,935 | same type · size within 19% · 0.31 mi away · built 1968 |
| 130 Bluebonnet Circle | Sold [P] | $265,000 | $126 | 2,110 sq ft · 3/2 | 1946 | 0.33 mi | Jan 28, 2026 | 95.0 % | 52 | $352,808size +$82,705 · age +$5,103 | same type · size within 40% · 0.33 mi away · built 1946 |
| 101 Bluebonnet Circle | Sold [P] | $302,000 | $140 | 2,150 sq ft · 3/2 | 1974 | 0.29 mi | Jul 8, 2026 | 99.3 % | 37 | $367,016size +$80,325 · age –$15,309 | same type · size within 39% · 0.29 mi away · built 1974 |
| 102 Bluebonnet Circle | Sold [P] | $260,000 | $160 | 1,620 sq ft · 2/2 | 1967 | 0.30 mi | Jul 23, 2026 | 94.2 % | 75 | $361,654size +$111,860 · age –$10,206 | same type · size within 54% · 0.30 mi away · built 1967 |
| 301 Webb Street | Sold [P] | $236,000 | $158 | 1,490 sq ft · 2/2 | 1973 | 0.27 mi | Feb 22, 2026 | 94.0 % | 84 | $341,015size +$119,595 · age –$14,580 | same type · size within 57% · 0.27 mi away · built 1973 |
| 1638 Northeast State Highway 230 Loop | Sold [P] | $533,000 | $189 | 2,820 sq ft · 4/3 | 1997 | 0.29 mi | Jul 3, 2026 | 93.0 % | 54 | $541,384size +$40,460 · age –$32,076 | same type · size within 19% · 0.29 mi away · built 1997 |
Median comparable $/sq ft: $149 (this property: $139). Adjustments: size at 35% of the city price per sq ft, age at 0.15% of value per year, plus a type adjustment where the property types differ.
True cost of ownership [P]Probability-based. Every line is a modeled estimate shown as a low – base – high range because taxes, insurance and maintenance are uncertain.
What will this property actually cost per month? Pick how you will use it and change any assumption. Ranges widen where the input is most uncertain.
An automated estimate is not an appraisal, inspection, insurance quote or lender approval. Actual loan terms depend on the borrower.
Property tax scenarios [P]Probability-based. Texas property taxes are local, so your bill will not simply copy the current owner’s. These scenarios use assumed tax rates and appraisal behavior.
Model what a buyer may pay, separately for an owner-occupant with a homestead exemption and for an investor. The current owner’s modeled bill is shown for contrast.
Rules used: homestead exemption applies to the school-district part of the rate for a qualifying primary residence; homestead appraisal growth is capped at 10% per year after the first year; non-homestead property may have a separate cap (verify current law and your county). The exemption does not apply automatically to investment property. Verify rates, exemptions and caps with the county appraisal district and the Texas Comptroller.
Property tax protest support
- Deadline: generally May 15 or 30 days after the notice of appraised value is mailed, whichever is later – confirm the date on your notice.
- Check the appraisal district’s record of your property (area, year built, condition, exemptions) for errors.
- Gather evidence: comparable assessments and sales, photos of defects, repair estimates.
- Compare your assessed value per sq ft with similar nearby homes (this property’s modeled value: $139 per sq ft).
- A protest does not guarantee a reduction.
Insurance and hazard intelligence [P]Probability-based. Premium ranges are modeled from value, age and city-level hazard. They are not quotes. Actual premiums depend on claims history, roof, coverage and insurer.
| Coverage | Estimated range (modeled) | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Homeowners (dwelling $525,000) | $2,891 – $6,195 / yr | Base $4,130 |
| Wind / hail deductible | 1 % – 2 % of dwelling coverage | Common in Texas policies; check your policy |
| Flood (separate policy) | $600 – $2,000 / yr | NFIP or private; homeowners policies exclude flood |
| Named-storm coverage | Often separate in coastal counties | Ask the agent |
- Hail / wind indicator
- Elevated (Texas) [P]Probability-based. City-level generalization.
- Flood indicator
- Moderate [P]Probability-based. City-level generalization. Use the FEMA map for this address.
- Roof age (est.)
- 29 years [P]Probability-based. Older roofs can raise premiums or limit coverage.
- Owner-occupied homeowners in ZIP 78957
- 2,048 active policies; Apr–Jun 2026: 61 canceled, 2 not renewed, 82 applications declined (3.1 % of active policies canceled or not renewed in 3 months) TDI
- Dwelling (landlord) policies in ZIP 78957
- 385 active policies; Apr–Jun 2026: 11 canceled, 0 not renewed, 4 applications declined (2.9 % of active policies canceled or not renewed in 3 months) TDI
- Source
- Texas Department of Insurance, HB 2067 residential property statistics (policy counts as of Dec 31, 2025; actions Apr–Jun 2026). ZIP-level, not this property.
- Claims history of this property
- Not available at address level [P]Probability-based. The Texas Department of Insurance publishes market statistics. Property-level claims and cancellation/non-renewal history is not available here. TDI
Quote checklist
- Ask for the CLUE report of the property and seller’s claims history.
- Get quotes from at least three insurers/agents, with the same coverage and deductibles.
- Confirm roof age/material, and whether hail damage is excluded or cosmetic-only.
- Ask about wind/hail and named-storm deductibles.
- Check flood zone on the FEMA Flood Map Service Center and get a flood quote.
- Confirm whether the Texas FAIR Plan / TWIA applies (coastal areas).
HOA and document intelligence [P]Probability-based. HOA information is not available for this address. The dues below are a probability-based estimate for a property like this.
- HOA likely?
- Probably not
- Estimated dues
- n/a
- Special assessments
- Unknown [P]Probability-based. Request the resale certificate; it lists assessments, reserves and litigation.
- Reserve funding
- Unknown [P]Probability-based. Probability-based estimate for a typical home like this one. It is not taken from any register or record about this specific property.
- Rental restrictions
- None expected
- Official portal
- hoa.texas.gov
Analyze HOA or resale documents
Paste text from an HOA resale certificate, dues notice or rules. The analysis runs in your browser – nothing is uploaded. It highlights dues, assessments, rental rules and follow-up questions; it is not legal interpretation.
Tip: for PDFs, copy the text out first. You can also upload files in a Listings chat.
Rental analysis
- Market rent range
- $3,780 – $4,620 / month [P]Probability-based. Modeled from typical rent per sq ft for the city and property type. Asking rents are not collected rents.
- Long-term rental
- Standard 12-month lease assumed
- Short-term rental (STR)
- Possible with local registration/permit [P]Probability-based. Texas cities set their own short-term rental rules, including licensing, occupancy limits and zones. Verify with the city (Smithville) and your HOA before assuming STR income.
- Vacancy and concessions
- 6 % vacancy · 1 % concessions [P]Probability-based. Typical underwriting assumptions; adjust in the Financial model.
- NOI (base case)
- $23,684 / year [P]Probability-based. After vacancy, taxes, insurance, HOA, 8% management, maintenance and admin. Before debt service and income tax.
- Cap rate
- 4.9 % [P]Probability-based. NOI ÷ estimated value ($486,000). The denominator is the modeled value, not a purchase price.
- Break-even occupancy
- 108 % [P]Probability-based. Occupancy needed to cover operating costs, debt service and capex reserves.
Rent comps: nearby modeled rents are not available; rent benchmarks would come from HUD Fair Market Rents and licensed rental feeds. Treat the range as an estimate.
Rental comparables [P]Probability-based. Modeled from nearby properties of the same type. Advertised rent is not achieved rent or a signed lease.
| Address | Rent / mo | Characteristics | Built | Distance | Date | Source type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 312 Quail Run | $3,900 [P] | 3,260 sq ft · 5 bd / 4 ba | 1980 | 290 ft | Aug 5, 2026 | Advertised [P] |
| 321 Quail Run | $3,600 [P] | 3,130 sq ft · 5 bd / 3 ba | 1987 | 320 ft | Sep 7, 2026 | Advertised [P] |
| 319 Quail Run | $3,300 [P] | 3,370 sq ft · 5 bd / 4 ba | 2024 | 350 ft | Jul 28, 2026 | Advertised [P] |
| 306 Quail Run | $3,350 [P] | 2,740 sq ft · 4 bd / 3 ba | 2006 | 380 ft | Sep 7, 2026 | Advertised [P] |
| 304 Quail Run | $2,250 [P] | 1,910 sq ft · 3 bd / 2 ba | 2008 | 400 ft | Sep 20, 2026 | Advertised [P] |
| 1689 Northeast State Highway 230 Loop | $2,050 [P] | 1,880 sq ft · 3 bd / 2 ba | 2007 | 410 ft | Sep 28, 2026 | Advertised [P] |
Median nearby rent $3,350 vs this property’s estimate $4,200 (+25.4 %): the estimate differs from nearby comparables – verify before relying on it.
Financial model Interactive
All defaults are modeled estimates [P] – change anything. Cap rate uses the purchase price you enter. Debt service is excluded from NOI and cap rate. Tax effects are illustrative, not tax advice.
Offer-price analysis
Saved in this browser so you can compare deals side by side.
Scenarios
Sensitivity
Formulas
- Gross rental yield = annual scheduled rent ÷ price.
- NOI = effective gross income − operating expenses (no debt service, no income tax).
- Cap rate = NOI ÷ price.
- Cash flow = NOI − debt service − capex reserve.
- Cash-on-cash = annual pre-tax cash flow ÷ cash invested (down payment + closing + repairs + reserves + points/fees).
- DSCR = NOI ÷ annual debt service.
- Break-even occupancy = (operating costs + debt service + reserve) ÷ potential gross income.
- IRR from the initial cash, yearly cash flows with growth, and net sale proceeds after selling costs and loan payoff.
- Equity buildup shows principal paydown and appreciation separately.
Resale and exit risk [P]Probability-based. Scenarios, not forecasts. Assumes 25% down, 6.75%, 30-year loan on the modeled value and 6% selling costs.
| Scenario | Hold | Value change | Sale price | Selling costs (6%) | Loan balance | Net proceeds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base | 3 yrs | 2.2 %/yr | $518,635 | $31,118 | $352,016 | $135,501 |
| Base | 7 yrs | 2.2 %/yr | $565,581 | $33,935 | $330,920 | $200,726 |
| Flat | 3 yrs | 0.0 %/yr | $486,000 | $29,160 | $352,016 | $104,824 |
| Flat | 7 yrs | 0.0 %/yr | $486,000 | $29,160 | $330,920 | $125,920 |
| Downside | 3 yrs | -2.0 %/yr | $457,419 | $27,445 | $352,016 | $77,958 |
| Downside | 7 yrs | -2.0 %/yr | $421,909 | $25,315 | $330,920 | $65,674 |
| Severe downside | 3 yrs | -4.5 %/yr | $423,298 | $25,398 | $352,016 | $45,885 |
| Severe downside | 7 yrs | -4.5 %/yr | $352,095 | $21,126 | $330,920 | $49 |
Expected time to sell: about 85 days (55 on market + ~30 to close) [P]; slower in a downturn. Negative net proceeds mean you would owe cash at sale.
Net proceeds calculator [P]Probability-based. Texas typical seller costs are used as defaults: about 5.5% agent commissions, title policy and escrow fees. Adjust to your own numbers.
- Agent commissions (5.5%)
- –
- Title policy & escrow (est.)
- –
- Prorated property tax (est.)
- –
- Total selling costs
- –
Estimates only. Texas has no state income tax or transfer tax; federal capital gains tax is not included.
Property condition [P]Probability-based. No inspection records are used. Component ages follow the modeled renovation history and typical lifespans. Get a professional inspection.
| Component | Estimated installed | Age | Typical life left | Condition (est.) | Replacement cost (est.) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roof | ~1997 [P] | 29 yrs | 0 yrs | Past typical life | $9,000 – $22,000 |
| HVAC | ~2005 [P] | 21 yrs | 0 yrs | Past typical life | $7,000 – $15,000 |
| Water heater | ~1991 [P] | 35 yrs | 0 yrs | Past typical life | $1,200 – $3,500 |
| Plumbing | ~1953 [P] | 73 yrs | 0 yrs | Past typical life | $4,000 – $15,000 (repipe) |
| Electrical | ~1953 [P] | 73 yrs | 0 yrs | Past typical life | $3,000 – $12,000 (panel/rewire) |
| Foundation | ~1953 [P] | 73 yrs | 0 yrs | Past typical life | $4,000 – $30,000 (piers/leveling) |
| Drainage / grading | ~1953 [P] | 73 yrs | 0 yrs | Past typical life | $1,500 – $8,000 |
| Windows / building envelope | ~1953 [P] | 73 yrs | 0 yrs | Past typical life | $6,000 – $20,000 |
Common Texas issues: foundation movement on expansive clay, hail damage to roofs, and HVAC load in summer heat. Year built 1953 – lead-based paint is possible (pre-1978) and asbestos may be present in older materials.
Renovation history [P]Probability-based. We have no records of work done on this property. The list is a probability-based simulation from the home’s age and typical lifespans of building components. It is not real.
Probable – not real. This is not a record of actual work. Years are approximate.
- ~2009 Bathroom remodel Tile, fixtures and waterproofing
- ~2009 New flooring Wood-look vinyl/laminate, tile or carpet
- ~2005 HVAC system replaced Central A/C and furnace
- ~1997 Roof replacement Shingles and underlayment (hail damage is common in Texas)
- ~1991 Water heater replaced Tank or tankless water heater
- ~1986 Fence / outdoor New fence, patio or landscaping
- ~1985 HVAC system replaced Central A/C and furnace
- ~1980 Bathroom remodel Tile, fixtures and waterproofing
- ~1979 Water heater replaced Tank or tankless water heater
- ~1978 Exterior paint / siding Repainting or siding repair
- ~1976 Roof replacement Shingles and underlayment (hail damage is common in Texas)
- ~1975 Kitchen remodel Cabinets, counters and appliances
Likely features [P]Probability-based. Features are not recorded for this property. Each percentage is how likely a home like this is to have it.
- Central A/C 99%
- Fenced backyard 78%
- Granite / quartz counters 35%
- Energy-efficient windows 30%
- Home office space 45%
Only features that came out as likely are shown. Percentages are the chance for a typical home like this.
Neighborhood
Nearby places are read live from OpenStreetMap (within about 1 mile). Statistics below are for the city, not this block. We do not show demographic profiles for individual properties, and school and crime information needs local context – use the official sources linked.
Loading nearby amenities …
- Schools
- Attendance zone depends on the school district [P]Probability-based. The school district and campus ratings are not part of the data used. Check the Texas Education Agency (TXschools.gov) and the district’s attendance-zone lookup. TXschools.gov
- Crime
- City or police-department reports [P]Probability-based. Crime data is not shown at address level without local context. Use the official city or police-department dashboards. find official data
- Zoning / land use
- Not determined [P]Probability-based. Zoning comes from the city GIS or planning department. Single-family detached is the typical use for this property type. zoning map
- Planned developments
- Check city permit data [P]Probability-based. Planned projects are not tracked. See the city’s development dashboard and the county for permits.
Fair housing: Listings does not steer or rank neighborhoods by who lives there. Insights are about the property, its costs and its surroundings.
Market · Smithville [P]Probability-based. City-level indicators (not parcel-level). Values are approximate priors for the city, not current statistics.
Geographic level: city / metro (Texas). Sources to verify: FHFA House Price Index, U.S. Census ACS, HUD, Texas Real Estate Research Center.
| Indicator | Value | Geographic level |
|---|---|---|
| Median sale price | $300,000 [P] | City / metro |
| 1-year trend | 0.6 % [P] | City / metro |
| 3-year trend | 2.5 % [P] | City / metro |
| 5-year trend | 33.9 % [P] | City / metro |
| Rent growth (YoY, asking) | 1.2 % [P] | City / metro |
| Months of supply | 4.3 [P] | City / metro |
| Days on market | 55 [P] | City / metro |
| Sale-to-list ratio | 97.0 % [P] | City / metro |
| New-construction permits / year | 1,000 [P] | City / metro |
| Median household income | $70,000 [P] | City / metro |
| Affordability: price ÷ income | 4.3× [P] | City / metro |
| Population | 100,000 [P] | City / metro |
| Job growth (YoY) | 1.5 % [P] | City / metro |
| Unemployment | 4.2 % [P] | City / metro |
Outlook scenarios [P]Probability-based. Scenarios with stated assumptions, not guaranteed predictions.
| Scenario | Assumed growth | 2027 | 2029 | 2031 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Downside | -1.3 % / yr | $480,000 | $467,000 | $455,000 |
| Base | 2.2 % / yr | $497,000 | $519,000 | $542,000 |
| Upside | 4.7 % / yr | $509,000 | $558,000 | $611,000 |
Assumptions: base growth from the city prior adjusted for this home’s age and type; downside assumes higher rates and weaker demand; upside assumes continued in-migration and constrained supply.
New supply and development [P]Probability-based. City-level permit volume is an approximate prior. Nearby permits and planned projects are not tracked here.
- New housing permits / year
- 1,000 (Smithville)
- Competing rental supply
- Check new apartment projects within 2 miles [P]Probability-based. Needs permit and listing data.
- Planned developments
- City permit search · County GIS
Plans change and may not be completed.
Climate and risk [P]Probability-based. City-level generalizations, not an assessment of this specific parcel. Check FEMA flood maps and your insurer.
- FEMA flood zone
- … FEMA
- Flood risk (city level)
- Moderate [P]Probability-based. City-level generalization; the FEMA zone above is the address-level fact.
- Ground elevation
- … USGS
- Hail & wind
- Elevated across most of Texas
- Hurricane / tropical storm
- Low to moderate (inland)
- Wildfire
- Low
- Earthquake
- Low
- Extreme heat
- High – long, hot summers; cooling costs matter
- Drought
- Moderate – periodic droughts and water restrictions
- Foundation movement
- More common on expansive clay soils
- State income tax
- None in Texas (property tax is higher)
Nearby homes
Map © OpenStreetMap contributors. Blue dots are nearby addresses.
Property records
Appraisal history BCAD-B
| Tax year | Market value | Land | Improvements | Assessed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $51,316 | $5,000 | $46,316 | $51,316 |
Tax history (modeled) [P]
| Year | Market value | Assessed value | Taxable (after $140k homestead*) | Tax bill (est.) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | $453,000 | $426,000 | $286,000 | $7,936 |
| 2023 | $474,000 | $446,000 | $306,000 | $8,296 |
| 2024 | $448,000 | $421,000 | $281,000 | $7,847 |
| 2025 | $483,000 | $454,000 | $314,000 | $8,457 |
| 2026 | $486,000 | $457,000 | $317,000 | $8,506 |
*The Texas school-tax homestead exemption applies only to owner-occupied primary residences; the 10% annual appraisal cap also applies to homesteads. Records come from the county appraisal district – not connected, so these are estimates.
Permits and improvements [P]
| Year | Work | Status |
|---|---|---|
| ~2009 | Bathroom remodel | Final inspection passed [P] |
| ~2005 | HVAC system replaced | Final inspection passed [P] |
| ~1997 | Roof replacement | Final inspection passed [P] |
| ~1991 | Water heater replaced | Final inspection passed [P] |
| ~1985 | HVAC system replaced | Final inspection passed [P] |
| ~1980 | Bathroom remodel | Final inspection passed [P] |
| ~1979 | Water heater replaced | Final inspection passed [P] |
Modeled from the renovation simulation – check the city’s permit portal for real permits.
- Ownership and deed
- Not available [P]Probability-based. Deed and ownership records are held by the Bastrop County Clerk and are not part of the data used.
- Rental history
- Not available [P]Probability-based. Prior asking rents and leases need licensed rental data.
- Foreclosure and liens
- None known [P]Probability-based. No public filings are connected. Order a title search.
Title, liens and recorded documents
- Recorded filings
- Not searched [P]Probability-based. No county clerk search is connected. An incomplete public-record search does not prove clear title. County Clerk records
- Liens / tax delinquency
- Not verified
- Easements
- Unknown – order a survey
- Mineral rights
- Often severed in Texas [P]Probability-based. Mineral and surface rights can be owned separately. Review the title commitment.
Items for title-company review: ownership chain, open liens, easements, restrictive covenants, mineral reservations, HOA liens.
Risks and due diligence [P]Probability-based. Risk levels are probability-based, from age, type and city-level hazard. A map designation alone is not a full risk assessment.
| Risk | Severity | Evidence | Estimated impact | Confidence | Next step |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hail / wind | High | Roof ~29 yrs old [P]; Texas hail and storm exposure | $4,900 – $19,400 roof/exterior; higher premiums | Medium | Get an insurance quote and a roof inspection |
| Foundation | High | Age 73 yrs on expansive clay [P] | $4,000 – $30,000 | Low | Foundation/structural engineer inspection |
| HVAC age | High | System ~21 yrs [P] | $7,000 – $15,000 | Low | HVAC inspection and service records |
| Cash flow (investor) | High | Base case cash flow –$634/mo, DSCR 0.83 | See sensitivities | Medium | Verify rent comps, insurance and tax bill; run the Financial model |
| Flood | Moderate | City-level: moderate [P] | $0 – $73,000 uninsured; flood insurance $700–$3,500/yr | Low | Check the FEMA Flood Map Service Center and elevation certificate |
| Plumbing / electrical | Moderate | Older wiring/pipes possible [P] | $3,000 – $15,000 | Low | Sewer scope, plumbing and electrical inspection |
| Property tax reassessment | Moderate | Texas relies on property tax; rates ~1.90% [P] | +$880/yr per +10% value | Medium | Check the county appraisal district and exemptions |
| Rental compliance | Moderate | City registration / STR rules vary | Fines and lost income | Low | Check Smithville rules |
| Title and legal | Unknown | No title, easement or lien data connected | Varies | Low | Order title search and survey |
| HOA / condo | Low | Dues, reserves and special assessments unknown [P] | Varies | Low | Request the HOA resale package |
| Data quality | Low | Confidence Medium; area and rooms are modeled | Valuation error band ±10% | High | Compare with appraisal district and an appraisal |
Due-diligence checklist
Your checklist is saved in this browser only.
Overall assessment
As a home for your own use
Estimated cost of owning is about $4,005 per month with 20% down at 6.75%, including property tax, insurance, HOA and maintenance. Because of the building age, an independent inspection is the first step. Compare the price with recent sales of similar homes in Smithville before you decide.
As a leveraged rental
Base case gross yield is 10.4 %, cap rate 4.9 % and cash flow –$634 per month with 25% down. With these assumptions the property does not pay for itself, so a lower price, higher rent or a larger down payment would be needed. Change any assumption in the financial model above to test it.
Largest open questions
- The real market value: confirm with sold comparables and, if buying, an appraisal.
- The tax level after purchase: homestead exemptions and reassessment change the bill.
- The insurance quote: hail, wind and flood cover can differ a lot between addresses.
- Technical condition: foundation, roof and HVAC need a physical inspection.
Method and limits: this is a desk analysis from public records, map data and stated assumptions. Items marked [P] are probability-based estimates. It is not an appraisal, inspection or legal advice.
Property report
One-page summary. Use “Print / save as PDF” for a copy. Confidence: Medium · TX-model v1.1 · 2026-10-12 · updated Oct 12, 2026.
- Estimated all-in monthly cost
- $4,460 [P]Probability-based. 20% down, 6.75%, 30 yrs; tax, insurance, HOA, 1% maintenance, utilities.
- If taxes +20% and insurance +30%
- $4,710 (+$250 / mo)
- Rent supported by comparables?
- Estimated $4,200 / month; see the rental comparables above.
- Base-case investor cash flow
- –$634 / mo · cap rate 4.9 % · DSCR 0.83
- Price that meets a 6% cap rate
- see Financial model
Needs verification
- High Hail / wind – Get an insurance quote and a roof inspection
- High Foundation – Foundation/structural engineer inspection
- High HVAC age – HVAC inspection and service records
- High Cash flow (investor) – Verify rent comps, insurance and tax bill; run the Financial model
- Moderate Flood – Check the FEMA Flood Map Service Center and elevation certificate
Who should confirm what
- Inspection: condition, roof, HVAC, foundation, plumbing
- Insurance quote: wind/hail premium and availability
- Official records: appraisal district, county clerk, permits
- Professional review: title, survey, HOA documents, tax advice
Official sources
Texas Department of Insurance · Comptroller property tax · HOA portal · FEMA flood maps · Appraisal district · County clerk · Permits · GIS
Confirmed facts = address, location and OSM-mapped building data · [P] = modeled estimate · everything else is an unresolved question.
Documents
Keep the paperwork for this property in one place: inspection report, survey, seller’s disclosure, HOA package, insurance quotes and lender estimate. Upload files in a chat with Listings to have them summarized – your documents stay private to your account.
Open Listings chat to upload documents Report a data error
Data sources, provenance and coverage
| Value | Label | Source / method | Date / version | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Address, ZIP, city | recorded | US DOT National Address Database via Overture Maps | 2025-09 snapshot | High |
| Coordinates | recorded | NAD address point | 2025-09 | High |
| Building type | modeled | City mix prior | Overture 2026-09-23 | Low |
| Building footprint | observed | OpenStreetMap / Overture polygon containing the point | Overture 2026-09-23 | Medium |
| Floors | observed | OpenStreetMap tags | Overture 2026-09-23 | Medium |
| Living area, beds, baths, lot, year built, value | modeled | Floor-plan algorithm from footprint and floors | TX-model v1.1 · 2026-10-12 | Low |
| Permits, deed dates, appraisal history | recorded | County appraisal district | Tax year 2021 | High |
| FEMA flood zone, ground elevation | recorded | FEMA National Flood Hazard Layer; USGS 3DEP | Live | High |
| Price history shape | observed | FHFA ZIP house price index where published | Annual, through 2025 | Medium |
| Estimated value, rent, tax, insurance | modeled | City $/sq ft priors × size × age | TX-model v1.1 · 2026-10-12 | Low–medium |
| Renovations, permits, sales, tax history | modeled | Lifespan simulation; no county records | TX-model v1.1 · 2026-10-12 | Low |
| Photos | observed | Wikimedia Commons, Wikidata, KartaView (geotagged) | Live, cached 30 days | Varies |
| Nearby amenities | observed | OpenStreetMap (live query) | Live, cached 14 days | Medium |
| Financial model inputs | user-entered / modeled | Defaults [P]; your edits are yours | Live | – |
Coverage today: Smithville and four other large Texas cities. Not connected: MLS listings, county recorder, county assessor, parcel boundaries, FEMA flood zones, school and crime datasets. Gaps are shown as “Not available” or [P], never filled silently. Computed metrics are versioned (TX-model v1.1 · 2026-10-12) and the formulas are shown in the Financial model.
Sources and caveats
Address points: U.S. DOT National Address Database (public domain), via Overture Maps. Buildings: OpenStreetMap contributors and Overture Maps (floors, class and footprint where mapped). Map tiles © OpenStreetMap contributors. Values, size, rooms, year built, renovations, features and costs marked [P] are modeled estimates and may be very different from reality. Not an appraisal, listing or offer. Do not use for buying, selling, lending or insurance decisions.
Listings can make mistakes. Check important info.