2625 Madera Canyon Road, Aubrey, TX 76227
Single-family home
What does [P] mean? Address and location are real public data. Anything marked [P] is a probability-based estimate generated for a typical home like this one – not a record about this exact property. Hover or tap [P] to see how each value is estimated.
Sources: DNCAD county appraisal record · TxGIO / National Address Database · OpenStreetMap buildings · FEMA flood map · USGS elevation · FHFA price index · Texas Dept. of Insurance. Items marked [P] are estimates and are not taken from these sources.
First look at the property
This is a single-family home in Aubrey, Denton County, with an appraised value of $493,000 DNCAD and about 3,412 sq ft of living area. Below is a short read of what speaks for and against it, based on the data on this page.
Strengths
- Built in 2022, newer than most homes in Aubrey, so roof, plumbing and wiring are less likely to be at the end of their life.
- 3 bedrooms and 1 bathrooms suit families and many tenants.
- Appraised value and building facts come from the DNCAD county record, not from a model.
- Foundation risk looks low on the available data.
- HVAC age risk looks low on the available data.
Weaknesses
- Property tax of about $9,370 per year ($781 per month) is a large running cost.
- Modeled cash flow is negative with 25% down: –$615 per month.
- HOA dues, special assessments and title issues are not known and must be checked.
Working hypothesis: this looks like a better fit for an owner-occupier than for an investor focused on cash flow. That is a starting point, not a conclusion; the sections below show the numbers behind it.
The five questions
Moderate Flood
Moderate Hail / wind
See all risks and the due-diligence checklist
Property facts
- Address
- 2625 Madera Canyon Road, Aubrey, TX 76227
- Coordinates
- 33.25065, -96.94962
- Property type
- Single-family home DNCAD
- Living area
- 3,412 sq ft DNCAD
- Bedrooms
- 3 [P]Probability-based. Derived from the assumed floor plan.
- Bathrooms
- 1 [P]Probability-based. Derived from the assumed floor plan.
- Floors
- 1 [P]Probability-based. Probability-based estimate for a typical home like this one.
- Building footprint
- 3,875 sq ft [P]Probability-based. Probability-based estimate for a typical home like this one.
- Lot size
- 7,052 sq ft DNCAD
- Year built
- 2022 DNCAD
- Building data source
- OpenStreetMap
Parcel, status and occupancy
- County
- Denton County TxGIO all addresses in the county
- Address record
- TxGIO StratMap · source Denton County · updated 2025-10-10
- Parcel ID (APN)
732865DNCAD- Listing status
- Off-market (no active listing found) [P]Probability-based. No MLS feed is connected, so listing status and price history are not available. Licensed listing data is needed for live status.
- Occupancy
- Renter-occupied [P]Probability-based. Occupancy is not known. Typical split for this property type and city.
- Parking
- 2-car garage [P]Probability-based. Probability-based estimate for a typical home like this one. It is not taken from any register or record about this specific property.
- Virtual tour
- Not available [P]Probability-based. No 3D tour or video is connected to this address.
- Parcel boundary
- Not available [P]Probability-based. Parcel outlines come from county GIS and are not a legal survey. The map shows the address point and nearby addresses.
- Last updated
- County record tax year 2026 · page updated Oct 13, 2026
- Canonical ID
TX-2ddb0ba17618
County appraisal record real data
From the Denton County appraisal district (DNCAD, tax year 2026). Appraised value is the county’s estimate for tax purposes, not a sale price or an appraisal for a loan.
- Appraised market value
- $493,093 DNCAD
- Land value
- $117,823 DNCAD
- Improvement value
- $375,270 DNCAD
- Land use code
- A1 DNCAD
- Lot size
- 0.162 acres (7,052 sq ft) DNCAD
- Last remodel / effective year
- 2022 DNCAD
- Quality grade
- AB2 DNCAD
- School district
- AUBREY ISD DNCAD
- Last recorded deed
- Jun 30, 2022 DNCAD
Photos
Photos from public sources (Wikimedia Commons, Wikidata, KartaView) taken at or near this address – of the building, the street, or the surrounding area. Many addresses have none.
Looking for photos near this address …
Valuation
- Estimated value
- $493,000 DNCAD county appraised market value
- Range
- $458,000 – $528,000
- Valuation date
- Oct 12, 2026
- Confidence
- Medium–high [P]Probability-based. Higher when building footprint, type and floors are mapped in OpenStreetMap. Here: footprint not mapped, type estimated, floors estimated.
- Price per sq ft
- $144 [P]Probability-based. Probability-based estimate for a typical home like this one. It is not taken from any register or record about this specific property.
- Comparable-sales indication
- $482,000 [P]Probability-based. Median of size/age-adjusted modeled comparable sales below. Comparable sales here are modeled, not recorded deeds.
Methodology (TX-model v1.1 · 2026-10-12): the estimate is the county appraisal district’s market value for this property, shown with a range and cross-checked against nearby comparable values. when no county record is used, estimated living area × a city-level price per sq ft × age factor × a property-level seeded variation, cross-checked against size- and age-adjusted nearby comparable values. Sale prices, listings and assessments from county records are not connected, so every number on this page that is not marked “OSM” is a modeled estimate [P].
Estimated value [P]Probability-based. No sale price or appraisal is used. The estimate multiplies the estimated living area by a typical price per square foot for the city, adjusted for age. Treat it as a rough guess.
$493,000 [P]Probability-based. Probability-based estimate for a typical home like this one. It is not taken from any register or record about this specific property.
Range $424,000 – $562,000 · about $144 per sq ft
History is real market data: the shape follows the FHFA house price index for ZIP 76227 (all-transactions, annual), scaled to this home’s modeled value [P]Probability-based. The index level is not this home’s price; only the year-by-year movement is observed.
Estimated monthly costs
- Property tax
- $781/mo [P]Probability-based. Texas has no state income tax and relies heavily on property tax. Rate assumed from typical local rates (about 1.90% of value).
- Home insurance
- $349/mo [P]Probability-based. Typical Texas homeowners insurance (hail and wind exposure).
- Mortgage (20% down, 30-yr, 6.75%)
- $2,558/mo [P]Probability-based. Illustrative only: 20% down, 30-year fixed at 6.75%.
Price history and appreciation
- Listing price history
- Not available [P]Probability-based. Needs a licensed MLS or listing-data feed.
- 1-year change in value
- -1.4 % [P]Probability-based. From the modeled city value index. Not this property’s recorded history.
- 3-year change in value
- -6.1 % [P]Probability-based. From the modeled city value index. Not this property’s recorded history.
- 5-year change in value
- 17.9 % [P]Probability-based. From the modeled city value index. Not this property’s recorded history.
- Over/undervalued vs comps
- Enter an asking price in “The five questions”.
Comps [P]Probability-based. Sold, active and pending comparables are modeled from nearby addresses. They are not recorded sales or live listings, and are shown to explain how the estimate is reasoned.
| Address | Status | Price | $/sq ft | Size · bd/ba | Built | Distance | Date | Sale-to-list | Days on market | Adjusted price | Why included |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10529 Table Bluff Street | Sold [P] | $467,000 | $144 | 3,239 sq ft · 5/4 | 2021 | 0.57 mi | Apr 2, 2026 | 99.6 % | 50 | $478,033size +$10,294 · age +$740 | same type · size within 5% · 0.57 mi away · built 2021 |
| 10405 Klondike Lane | Sold [P] | $480,000 | $147 | 3,275 sq ft · 5/4 | 2021 | 0.60 mi | Apr 17, 2026 | 99.8 % | 71 | $488,891size +$8,152 · age +$740 | same type · size within 4% · 0.60 mi away · built 2021 |
| 10408 Table Bluff Street | Sold [P] | $478,000 | $146 | 3,271 sq ft · 5/4 | 2021 | 0.61 mi | Feb 11, 2026 | 97.6 % | 66 | $487,129size +$8,390 · age +$740 | same type · size within 4% · 0.61 mi away · built 2021 |
| 10421 Table Bluff Street | Sold [P] | $473,000 | $145 | 3,271 sq ft · 5/4 | 2021 | 0.61 mi | Aug 13, 2026 | 93.3 % | 32 | $482,129size +$8,390 · age +$740 | same type · size within 4% · 0.61 mi away · built 2021 |
| 10421 Klondike Lane | Active [P] | $455,000 | $155 | 2,931 sq ft · 5/3 | 2021 | 0.57 mi | Sep 3, 2026 | – | 64 | $484,359size +$28,620 · age +$740 | same type · size within 14% · 0.57 mi away · built 2021 |
| 11416 Aspen Trail | Sold [P] | $430,000 | $146 | 2,940 sq ft · 5/3 | 2022 | 0.59 mi | Jan 26, 2026 | 96.4 % | 85 | $458,084size +$28,084 · age +$0 | same type · size within 14% · 0.59 mi away · built 2022 |
| 2975 Main Street | Sold [P] | $232,000 | $186 | 1,250 sq ft · 2/1 | 2024 | 0.35 mi | Feb 19, 2026 | 98.7 % | 55 | $359,160size +$128,639 · age –$1,479 | same type · size within 63% · 0.35 mi away · built 2024 |
| 11413 Aspen Trail | Pending [P] | $418,000 | $153 | 2,739 sq ft · 4/3 | 2022 | 0.60 mi | Sep 7, 2026 | – | 38 | $458,044size +$40,044 · age +$0 | same type · size within 20% · 0.60 mi away · built 2022 |
Median comparable $/sq ft: $147 (this property: $144). Adjustments: size at 35% of the city price per sq ft, age at 0.15% of value per year, plus a type adjustment where the property types differ.
Rental analysis
- Market rent range
- $3,555 – $4,345 / month [P]Probability-based. Modeled from typical rent per sq ft for the city and property type. Asking rents are not collected rents.
- Long-term rental
- Standard 12-month lease assumed
- Short-term rental (STR)
- Possible with local registration/permit [P]Probability-based. Texas cities set their own short-term rental rules, including licensing, occupancy limits and zones. Verify with the city (Aubrey) and your HOA before assuming STR income.
- Vacancy and concessions
- 6 % vacancy · 1 % concessions [P]Probability-based. Typical underwriting assumptions; adjust in the Financial model.
- NOI (base case)
- $23,364 / year [P]Probability-based. After vacancy, taxes, insurance, HOA, 8% management, maintenance and admin. Before debt service and income tax.
- Cap rate
- 4.7 % [P]Probability-based. NOI ÷ estimated value ($493,000). The denominator is the modeled value, not a purchase price.
- Break-even occupancy
- 109 % [P]Probability-based. Occupancy needed to cover operating costs, debt service and capex reserves.
Rent comps: nearby modeled rents are not available; rent benchmarks would come from HUD Fair Market Rents and licensed rental feeds. Treat the range as an estimate.
Rental comparables [P]Probability-based. Modeled from nearby properties of the same type. Advertised rent is not achieved rent or a signed lease.
| Address | Rent / mo | Characteristics | Built | Distance | Date | Source type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2709 Madera Canyon Road | $3,400 [P] | 3,274 sq ft · 5 bd / 4 ba | 2021 | 410 ft | Sep 6, 2026 | Advertised [P] |
| 2713 Madera Canyon Road | $2,475 [P] | 2,164 sq ft · 3 bd / 2 ba | 2021 | 480 ft | Aug 9, 2026 | Advertised [P] |
| 2521 Galisto Lane | $2,175 [P] | 2,180 sq ft · 3 bd / 2 ba | 2021 | 500 ft | Oct 1, 2026 | Advertised [P] |
| 2717 Madera Canyon Road | $2,875 [P] | 2,513 sq ft · 4 bd / 3 ba | 2021 | 0.10 mi | Aug 1, 2026 | Advertised [P] |
| 2517 Galisto Lane | $2,400 [P] | 2,295 sq ft · 4 bd / 3 ba | 2021 | 0.10 mi | Aug 12, 2026 | Advertised [P] |
| 2644 O Connell Circle | $2,425 [P] | 2,075 sq ft · 3 bd / 2 ba | 2021 | 0.11 mi | Sep 24, 2026 | Advertised [P] |
Median nearby rent $2,475 vs this property’s estimate $3,950 (+59.6 %): the estimate differs from nearby comparables – verify before relying on it.
True cost of ownership [P]Probability-based. Every line is a modeled estimate shown as a low – base – high range because taxes, insurance and maintenance are uncertain.
What will this property actually cost per month? Pick how you will use it and change any assumption. Ranges widen where the input is most uncertain.
An automated estimate is not an appraisal, inspection, insurance quote or lender approval. Actual loan terms depend on the borrower.
Property tax scenarios [P]Probability-based. Texas property taxes are local, so your bill will not simply copy the current owner’s. These scenarios use assumed tax rates and appraisal behavior.
Model what a buyer may pay, separately for an owner-occupant with a homestead exemption and for an investor. The current owner’s modeled bill is shown for contrast.
Rules used: homestead exemption applies to the school-district part of the rate for a qualifying primary residence; homestead appraisal growth is capped at 10% per year after the first year; non-homestead property may have a separate cap (verify current law and your county). The exemption does not apply automatically to investment property. Verify rates, exemptions and caps with the county appraisal district and the Texas Comptroller.
Property tax protest support
- Deadline: generally May 15 or 30 days after the notice of appraised value is mailed, whichever is later – confirm the date on your notice.
- Check the appraisal district’s record of your property (area, year built, condition, exemptions) for errors.
- Gather evidence: comparable assessments and sales, photos of defects, repair estimates.
- Compare your assessed value per sq ft with similar nearby homes (this property’s modeled value: $144 per sq ft).
- A protest does not guarantee a reduction.
Insurance and hazard intelligence [P]Probability-based. Premium ranges are modeled from value, age and city-level hazard. They are not quotes. Actual premiums depend on claims history, roof, coverage and insurer.
| Coverage | Estimated range (modeled) | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Homeowners (dwelling $512,000) | $2,933 – $6,285 / yr | Base $4,190 |
| Wind / hail deductible | 1 % – 2 % of dwelling coverage | Common in Texas policies; check your policy |
| Flood (separate policy) | $600 – $2,000 / yr | NFIP or private; homeowners policies exclude flood |
| Named-storm coverage | Often separate in coastal counties | Ask the agent |
- Hail / wind indicator
- Elevated (Texas) [P]Probability-based. City-level generalization.
- Flood indicator
- Moderate [P]Probability-based. City-level generalization. Use the FEMA map for this address.
- Roof age (est.)
- 4 years [P]Probability-based. Older roofs can raise premiums or limit coverage.
- Owner-occupied homeowners in ZIP 76227
- 26,716 active policies; Apr–Jun 2026: 1,334 canceled, 106 not renewed, 1,930 applications declined (5.4 % of active policies canceled or not renewed in 3 months) TDI
- Dwelling (landlord) policies in ZIP 76227
- 3,626 active policies; Apr–Jun 2026: 180 canceled, 7 not renewed, 105 applications declined (5.2 % of active policies canceled or not renewed in 3 months) TDI
- Source
- Texas Department of Insurance, HB 2067 residential property statistics (policy counts as of Dec 31, 2025; actions Apr–Jun 2026). ZIP-level, not this property.
- Claims history of this property
- Not available at address level [P]Probability-based. The Texas Department of Insurance publishes market statistics. Property-level claims and cancellation/non-renewal history is not available here. TDI
Quote checklist
- Ask for the CLUE report of the property and seller’s claims history.
- Get quotes from at least three insurers/agents, with the same coverage and deductibles.
- Confirm roof age/material, and whether hail damage is excluded or cosmetic-only.
- Ask about wind/hail and named-storm deductibles.
- Check flood zone on the FEMA Flood Map Service Center and get a flood quote.
- Confirm whether the Texas FAIR Plan / TWIA applies (coastal areas).
HOA and document intelligence [P]Probability-based. HOA information is not available for this address. The dues below are a probability-based estimate for a property like this.
- HOA likely?
- Probably not
- Estimated dues
- n/a
- Special assessments
- Unknown [P]Probability-based. Request the resale certificate; it lists assessments, reserves and litigation.
- Reserve funding
- Unknown [P]Probability-based. Probability-based estimate for a typical home like this one. It is not taken from any register or record about this specific property.
- Rental restrictions
- None expected
- Official portal
- hoa.texas.gov
Analyze HOA or resale documents
Paste text from an HOA resale certificate, dues notice or rules. The analysis runs in your browser – nothing is uploaded. It highlights dues, assessments, rental rules and follow-up questions; it is not legal interpretation.
Tip: for PDFs, copy the text out first. You can also upload files in a Listings chat.
Financial model Interactive
All defaults are modeled estimates [P] – change anything. Cap rate uses the purchase price you enter. Debt service is excluded from NOI and cap rate. Tax effects are illustrative, not tax advice.
Offer-price analysis
Saved in this browser so you can compare deals side by side.
Scenarios
Sensitivity
Formulas
- Gross rental yield = annual scheduled rent ÷ price.
- NOI = effective gross income − operating expenses (no debt service, no income tax).
- Cap rate = NOI ÷ price.
- Cash flow = NOI − debt service − capex reserve.
- Cash-on-cash = annual pre-tax cash flow ÷ cash invested (down payment + closing + repairs + reserves + points/fees).
- DSCR = NOI ÷ annual debt service.
- Break-even occupancy = (operating costs + debt service + reserve) ÷ potential gross income.
- IRR from the initial cash, yearly cash flows with growth, and net sale proceeds after selling costs and loan payoff.
- Equity buildup shows principal paydown and appreciation separately.
Resale and exit risk [P]Probability-based. Scenarios, not forecasts. Assumes 25% down, 6.75%, 30-year loan on the modeled value and 6% selling costs.
| Scenario | Hold | Value change | Sale price | Selling costs (6%) | Loan balance | Net proceeds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base | 3 yrs | 2.9 %/yr | $536,990 | $32,219 | $357,086 | $147,684 |
| Base | 7 yrs | 2.9 %/yr | $601,808 | $36,108 | $335,687 | $230,013 |
| Flat | 3 yrs | 0.0 %/yr | $493,000 | $29,580 | $357,086 | $106,334 |
| Flat | 7 yrs | 0.0 %/yr | $493,000 | $29,580 | $335,687 | $127,733 |
| Downside | 3 yrs | -2.0 %/yr | $464,008 | $27,840 | $357,086 | $79,081 |
| Downside | 7 yrs | -2.0 %/yr | $427,986 | $25,679 | $335,687 | $66,620 |
| Severe downside | 3 yrs | -4.5 %/yr | $429,395 | $25,764 | $357,086 | $46,545 |
| Severe downside | 7 yrs | -4.5 %/yr | $357,166 | $21,430 | $335,687 | $50 |
Expected time to sell: about 85 days (55 on market + ~30 to close) [P]; slower in a downturn. Negative net proceeds mean you would owe cash at sale.
Market · Aubrey [P]Probability-based. City-level indicators (not parcel-level). Values are approximate priors for the city, not current statistics.
Geographic level: city / metro (Texas). Sources to verify: FHFA House Price Index, U.S. Census ACS, HUD, Texas Real Estate Research Center.
| Indicator | Value | Geographic level |
|---|---|---|
| Median sale price | $300,000 [P] | City / metro |
| 1-year trend | -1.4 % [P] | City / metro |
| 3-year trend | -6.1 % [P] | City / metro |
| 5-year trend | 17.9 % [P] | City / metro |
| Rent growth (YoY, asking) | 1.2 % [P] | City / metro |
| Months of supply | 4.3 [P] | City / metro |
| Days on market | 55 [P] | City / metro |
| Sale-to-list ratio | 97.0 % [P] | City / metro |
| New-construction permits / year | 1,000 [P] | City / metro |
| Median household income | $70,000 [P] | City / metro |
| Affordability: price ÷ income | 4.3× [P] | City / metro |
| Population | 100,000 [P] | City / metro |
| Job growth (YoY) | 1.5 % [P] | City / metro |
| Unemployment | 4.2 % [P] | City / metro |
Outlook scenarios [P]Probability-based. Scenarios with stated assumptions, not guaranteed predictions.
| Scenario | Assumed growth | 2027 | 2029 | 2031 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Downside | -0.6 % / yr | $490,000 | $484,000 | $478,000 |
| Base | 2.9 % / yr | $507,000 | $537,000 | $568,000 |
| Upside | 5.4 % / yr | $520,000 | $577,000 | $641,000 |
Assumptions: base growth from the city prior adjusted for this home’s age and type; downside assumes higher rates and weaker demand; upside assumes continued in-migration and constrained supply.
New supply and development [P]Probability-based. City-level permit volume is an approximate prior. Nearby permits and planned projects are not tracked here.
- New housing permits / year
- 1,000 (Aubrey)
- Competing rental supply
- Check new apartment projects within 2 miles [P]Probability-based. Needs permit and listing data.
- Planned developments
- City permit search · County GIS
Plans change and may not be completed.
Neighborhood
Nearby places are read live from OpenStreetMap (within about 1 mile). Statistics below are for the city, not this block. We do not show demographic profiles for individual properties, and school and crime information needs local context – use the official sources linked.
Loading nearby amenities …
- Schools
- Attendance zone depends on the school district [P]Probability-based. The school district and campus ratings are not part of the data used. Check the Texas Education Agency (TXschools.gov) and the district’s attendance-zone lookup. TXschools.gov
- Crime
- City or police-department reports [P]Probability-based. Crime data is not shown at address level without local context. Use the official city or police-department dashboards. find official data
- Zoning / land use
- Not determined [P]Probability-based. Zoning comes from the city GIS or planning department. Single-family detached is the typical use for this property type. zoning map
- Planned developments
- Check city permit data [P]Probability-based. Planned projects are not tracked. See the city’s development dashboard and the county for permits.
Fair housing: Listings does not steer or rank neighborhoods by who lives there. Insights are about the property, its costs and its surroundings.
Floor plan Assumed
Floors 1 [P]Probability-based. The number of floors is not recorded for this building. It is estimated from the building type and footprint.
Probability-based illustration – not an actual floor plan. Listings has no access to this building’s real room layout. The drawing is generated by an algorithm from the building footprint (estimated – no footprint is mapped), number of floors, building type and typical US layouts. Shape, dimensions, rooms, walls, doors, windows and furniture may differ completely from reality. Do not use for buying, selling, permits or valuation.
Property condition [P]Probability-based. No inspection records are used. Component ages follow the modeled renovation history and typical lifespans. Get a professional inspection.
| Component | Estimated installed | Age | Typical life left | Condition (est.) | Replacement cost (est.) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roof | ~2022 [P] | 4 yrs | 18 yrs | OK | $9,000 – $22,000 |
| HVAC | ~2022 [P] | 4 yrs | 11 yrs | OK | $7,000 – $15,000 |
| Water heater | ~2022 [P] | 4 yrs | 8 yrs | OK | $1,200 – $3,500 |
| Plumbing | ~2022 [P] | 4 yrs | 51 yrs | OK | $4,000 – $15,000 (repipe) |
| Electrical | ~2022 [P] | 4 yrs | 46 yrs | OK | $3,000 – $12,000 (panel/rewire) |
| Foundation | ~2022 [P] | 4 yrs | 66 yrs | OK | $4,000 – $30,000 (piers/leveling) |
| Drainage / grading | ~2022 [P] | 4 yrs | 36 yrs | OK | $1,500 – $8,000 |
| Windows / building envelope | ~2022 [P] | 4 yrs | 24 yrs | OK | $6,000 – $20,000 |
Common Texas issues: foundation movement on expansive clay, hail damage to roofs, and HVAC load in summer heat. Year built 2022.
Renovation history [P]Probability-based. We have no records of work done on this property. The list is a probability-based simulation from the home’s age and typical lifespans of building components. It is not real.
Probable – not real. This is not a record of actual work. Years are approximate.
The home is recent enough that major renovations are not expected yet.
Likely features [P]Probability-based. Features are not recorded for this property. Each percentage is how likely a home like this is to have it.
- Central A/C 99%
- Attached garage 82%
- Fenced backyard 78%
- Covered patio 55%
- Fireplace 42%
- Ceiling fans 80%
- Granite / quartz counters 70%
- Walk-in closet 80%
- Smart thermostat 60%
- Energy-efficient windows 70%
Only features that came out as likely are shown. Percentages are the chance for a typical home like this.
Property records
Appraisal history DNCAD
| Tax year | Market value | Land | Improvements | Assessed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $493,093 | $117,823 | $375,270 | $493,093 |
Deed history DNCAD
| Recorded | Event |
|---|---|
| Jun 30, 2022 | Recorded deed transfer DNCAD |
Dates of recorded deeds from the county appraisal record. Texas is a non-disclosure state, so sale prices are not part of public records.
Tax history (modeled) [P]
| Year | Market value | Assessed value | Taxable (after $140k homestead*) | Tax bill (est.) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | $498,000 | $468,000 | $328,000 | $8,716 |
| 2023 | $525,000 | $494,000 | $354,000 | $9,194 |
| 2024 | $499,000 | $469,000 | $329,000 | $8,739 |
| 2025 | $500,000 | $470,000 | $330,000 | $8,756 |
| 2026 | $493,000 | $463,000 | $323,000 | $8,629 |
*The Texas school-tax homestead exemption applies only to owner-occupied primary residences; the 10% annual appraisal cap also applies to homesteads. Records come from the county appraisal district – not connected, so these are estimates.
Permits and improvements [P]
No major permitted work expected for this age.
Modeled from the renovation simulation – check the city’s permit portal for real permits.
- Ownership and deed
- Not available [P]Probability-based. Deed and ownership records are held by the Denton County Clerk and are not part of the data used.
- Rental history
- Not available [P]Probability-based. Prior asking rents and leases need licensed rental data.
- Foreclosure and liens
- None known [P]Probability-based. No public filings are connected. Order a title search.
Title, liens and recorded documents
- Recorded filings
- Not searched [P]Probability-based. No county clerk search is connected. An incomplete public-record search does not prove clear title. County Clerk records
- Liens / tax delinquency
- Not verified
- Easements
- Unknown – order a survey
- Mineral rights
- Often severed in Texas [P]Probability-based. Mineral and surface rights can be owned separately. Review the title commitment.
Items for title-company review: ownership chain, open liens, easements, restrictive covenants, mineral reservations, HOA liens.
Risks and due diligence [P]Probability-based. Risk levels are probability-based, from age, type and city-level hazard. A map designation alone is not a full risk assessment.
| Risk | Severity | Evidence | Estimated impact | Confidence | Next step |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash flow (investor) | High | Base case cash flow –$615/mo, DSCR 0.81 | See sensitivities | Medium | Verify rent comps, insurance and tax bill; run the Financial model |
| Flood | Moderate | City-level: moderate [P] | $0 – $74,000 uninsured; flood insurance $700–$3,500/yr | Low | Check the FEMA Flood Map Service Center and elevation certificate |
| Hail / wind | Moderate | Roof ~4 yrs old [P]; Texas hail and storm exposure | $4,900 – $19,700 roof/exterior; higher premiums | Medium | Get an insurance quote and a roof inspection |
| Property tax reassessment | Moderate | Texas relies on property tax; rates ~1.90% [P] | +$940/yr per +10% value | Medium | Check the county appraisal district and exemptions |
| Rental compliance | Moderate | City registration / STR rules vary | Fines and lost income | Low | Check Aubrey rules |
| Title and legal | Unknown | No title, easement or lien data connected | Varies | Low | Order title search and survey |
| Foundation | Low | Age 4 yrs on expansive clay [P] | $4,000 – $30,000 | Low | Foundation/structural engineer inspection |
| HVAC age | Low | System ~4 yrs [P] | $7,000 – $15,000 | Low | HVAC inspection and service records |
| Plumbing / electrical | Low | Modern systems expected [P] | $3,000 – $15,000 | Low | Sewer scope, plumbing and electrical inspection |
| HOA / condo | Low | Dues, reserves and special assessments unknown [P] | Varies | Low | Request the HOA resale package |
| Data quality | Low | Confidence Medium–high; area and rooms are modeled | Valuation error band ±7% | High | Compare with appraisal district and an appraisal |
Due-diligence checklist
Your checklist is saved in this browser only.
Climate and risk [P]Probability-based. City-level generalizations, not an assessment of this specific parcel. Check FEMA flood maps and your insurer.
- FEMA flood zone
- … FEMA
- Flood risk (city level)
- Moderate [P]Probability-based. City-level generalization; the FEMA zone above is the address-level fact.
- Ground elevation
- … USGS
- Hail & wind
- Elevated across most of Texas
- Hurricane / tropical storm
- Low to moderate (inland)
- Wildfire
- Low
- Earthquake
- Low
- Extreme heat
- High – long, hot summers; cooling costs matter
- Drought
- Moderate – periodic droughts and water restrictions
- Foundation movement
- Possible on expansive clay soils
- State income tax
- None in Texas (property tax is higher)
Nearby homes
Map © OpenStreetMap contributors. Blue dots are nearby addresses.
Net proceeds calculator [P]Probability-based. Texas typical seller costs are used as defaults: about 5.5% agent commissions, title policy and escrow fees. Adjust to your own numbers.
- Agent commissions (5.5%)
- –
- Title policy & escrow (est.)
- –
- Prorated property tax (est.)
- –
- Total selling costs
- –
Estimates only. Texas has no state income tax or transfer tax; federal capital gains tax is not included.
Overall assessment
As a home for your own use
Estimated cost of owning is about $4,099 per month with 20% down at 6.75%, including property tax, insurance, HOA and maintenance. The relatively recent build year is a plus. Compare the price with recent sales of similar homes in Aubrey before you decide.
As a leveraged rental
Base case gross yield is 9.6 %, cap rate 4.7 % and cash flow –$615 per month with 25% down. With these assumptions the property does not pay for itself, so a lower price, higher rent or a larger down payment would be needed. Change any assumption in the financial model above to test it.
Largest open questions
- The real market value: confirm with sold comparables and, if buying, an appraisal.
- The tax level after purchase: homestead exemptions and reassessment change the bill.
- The insurance quote: hail, wind and flood cover can differ a lot between addresses.
- Technical condition: foundation, roof and HVAC need a physical inspection.
Method and limits: this is a desk analysis from public records, map data and stated assumptions. Items marked [P] are probability-based estimates. It is not an appraisal, inspection or legal advice.
Property report
One-page summary. Use “Print / save as PDF” for a copy. Confidence: Medium–high · TX-model v1.1 · 2026-10-12 · updated Oct 12, 2026.
- Estimated all-in monthly cost
- $4,542 [P]Probability-based. 20% down, 6.75%, 30 yrs; tax, insurance, HOA, 1% maintenance, utilities.
- If taxes +20% and insurance +30%
- $4,803 (+$261 / mo)
- Rent supported by comparables?
- Estimated $3,950 / month; see the rental comparables above.
- Base-case investor cash flow
- –$615 / mo · cap rate 4.7 % · DSCR 0.81
- Price that meets a 6% cap rate
- see Financial model
Needs verification
- High Cash flow (investor) – Verify rent comps, insurance and tax bill; run the Financial model
- Moderate Flood – Check the FEMA Flood Map Service Center and elevation certificate
- Moderate Hail / wind – Get an insurance quote and a roof inspection
- Moderate Property tax reassessment – Check the county appraisal district and exemptions
- Moderate Rental compliance – Check Aubrey rules
Who should confirm what
- Inspection: condition, roof, HVAC, foundation, plumbing
- Insurance quote: wind/hail premium and availability
- Official records: appraisal district, county clerk, permits
- Professional review: title, survey, HOA documents, tax advice
Official sources
Texas Department of Insurance · Comptroller property tax · HOA portal · FEMA flood maps · Appraisal district · County clerk · Permits · GIS
Confirmed facts = address, location and OSM-mapped building data · [P] = modeled estimate · everything else is an unresolved question.
Documents
Keep the paperwork for this property in one place: inspection report, survey, seller’s disclosure, HOA package, insurance quotes and lender estimate. Upload files in a chat with Listings to have them summarized – your documents stay private to your account.
Open Listings chat to upload documents Report a data error
Data sources, provenance and coverage
| Value | Label | Source / method | Date / version | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Address, ZIP, city | recorded | US DOT National Address Database via Overture Maps | 2025-09 snapshot | High |
| Coordinates | recorded | NAD address point | 2025-09 | High |
| Building type | modeled | City mix prior | Overture 2026-09-23 | Low |
| Building footprint | modeled | Typical size | Overture 2026-09-23 | Low |
| Floors | modeled | Type prior | Overture 2026-09-23 | Low |
| Living area, beds, baths, lot, year built, value | recorded | County appraisal district record (DNCAD 2026) | Tax year 2026 | High |
| Permits, deed dates, appraisal history | recorded | County appraisal district | Tax year 2026 | High |
| FEMA flood zone, ground elevation | recorded | FEMA National Flood Hazard Layer; USGS 3DEP | Live | High |
| Price history shape | observed | FHFA ZIP house price index where published | Annual, through 2025 | Medium |
| Estimated value, rent, tax, insurance | modeled | City $/sq ft priors × size × age | TX-model v1.1 · 2026-10-12 | Low–medium |
| Renovations, permits, sales, tax history | modeled | Lifespan simulation; no county records | TX-model v1.1 · 2026-10-12 | Low |
| Photos | observed | Wikimedia Commons, Wikidata, KartaView (geotagged) | Live, cached 30 days | Varies |
| Nearby amenities | observed | OpenStreetMap (live query) | Live, cached 14 days | Medium |
| Financial model inputs | user-entered / modeled | Defaults [P]; your edits are yours | Live | – |
Coverage today: Aubrey and four other large Texas cities. Not connected: MLS listings, county recorder, county assessor, parcel boundaries, FEMA flood zones, school and crime datasets. Gaps are shown as “Not available” or [P], never filled silently. Computed metrics are versioned (TX-model v1.1 · 2026-10-12) and the formulas are shown in the Financial model.
Sources and caveats
Address points: U.S. DOT National Address Database (public domain), via Overture Maps. Buildings: OpenStreetMap contributors and Overture Maps (floors, class and footprint where mapped). Map tiles © OpenStreetMap contributors. Values, size, rooms, year built, renovations, features and costs marked [P] are modeled estimates and may be very different from reality. Not an appraisal, listing or offer. Do not use for buying, selling, lending or insurance decisions.
Listings can make mistakes. Check important info.